ALP 12.1%
Incumbent MP
Anthony Lynham, since 2014.
Geography
Brisbane. Stafford covers the northern Brisbane suburbs of Stafford, Stafford Heights, Grange, Newmarket, Wilston, Kedron, Chermside and parts of Alderley, Lutwyche, and Wavell Heights.
History
The seat of Stafford was first created in 1972. It was abolished in 1992 before being restored in 2001. The seat was a marginal seat throughout the 1970s and 1980s. It was held by Labor from 2001 to 2012, and again since the 2014 by-election.
The seat was first won in 1972 by William Harvey. He was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Terry Gygar in the 1974 landslide election.
Gygar held the seat at the 1977 and 1980 elections before losing in 1983 to the ALP’s Denis Murphy. Murphy was diagnosed with cancer and died in 1984 without ever speaking in Parliament.
Gygar regained his seat at the 1984 by-election, and held it until 1989.
Rod Welford won the seat for the Labor Party in 1989. When Stafford was abolished in 1992 he moved to the neighbouring seat of Everton. He held Everton until his retirement in 2009. He also served as a minister in the Beattie and Bligh governments from 1998 to 2009.
The ALP’s Terry Sullivan won the newly restored seat of Stafford in 2001. Sullivan had first been elected at the 1991 Nundah by-election. Nundah was abolished in 1992, and Sullivan moved to the new seat of Chermside. This seat was also abolished in 2001, and Sullivan moved to Stafford. He retired in 2006.
Stirling Hinchliffe, also of the ALP, won the seat in 2006, and retained it in 2009.
In 2012, Hinchliffe lost his seat to LNP candidate Chris Davis. Davis was appointed as Assistant Minister for Health in the new LNP government. In May 2014 he was sacked as a minister due to numerous public disagreements with his colleagues. Later that month, he resigned from the Parliament in protest at the direction of the Newman LNP government.
The July 2014 by-election was easily won by Labor candidate Anthony Lynham, benefiting from a 19% swing back to Labor. Lynham was re-elected in 2015 and 2017.
Candidates
- Jeff Hodges (Civil Liberties & Motorists)
- Stephen Bates (Greens)
- Ed Sangjitphun (Liberal National)
- Kerrie Dwyer (One Nation)
- Anthony Conciatore (Independent)
- Jimmy Sullivan (Labor)
Assessment
Stafford is a safe Labor seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Anthony Lynham | Labor | 15,357 | 48.1 | +0.4 |
| Ed Sangjitphun | Liberal National | 10,739 | 33.6 | -3.9 |
| John Meyer | Greens | 5,835 | 18.3 | +4.7 |
| Informal | 1,296 | 3.9 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Anthony Lynham | Labor | 19,830 | 62.1 | +2.8 |
| Ed Sangjitphun | Liberal National | 12,101 | 37.9 | -2.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Stafford have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 60% in the south to 65% in the centre and north.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 16.8% in the north to 22.1% in the south.
| Voter group | ON prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 18.4 | 65.2 | 8,179 | 25.6 |
| North | 16.8 | 65.3 | 6,646 | 20.8 |
| South | 22.1 | 60.2 | 5,506 | 17.2 |
| Pre-poll | 15.3 | 56.9 | 5,432 | 17.0 |
| Other votes | 18.9 | 60.9 | 6,168 | 19.3 |
Election results in Stafford at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.
*Ben – update that ALP MP Anythony Lynham has resigned. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-10/anthony-lynham-senior-minister-palaszczuk-government-quits-staff/12648624
Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain
With the news, I’m not as confident but with the big margin, the ALP should be still safe. I will watch to see who they choose as their candidate and how the campaign goes. (Second minister to resign in a week after Coralee in Mundingburra)
I agree with PO,
While Anthony Lynham was a pretty popular member, especially only being in the seat since 2014, I suspect ALP will still retain. However with a swing away from them sue to Lynham’s personal vote.
I’ve read in the Courier Mail his likely successor will be Jim Sullivan formelly chief of staff to Attorney-General and Minister for Justice Yvette D’Ath. And son of former MP Terry Sullivan who was the member for Stafford from 1991 – 2006.
Either way Labor retains this seat quite comfortably.
I wouldn’t say Lynham has a personal vote – he was recruited by Labor. “One punch” was a big issue at the time and he was a faxmax surgeon fixing people up.
Would be nice if the Cr Hammond’s personal vote could transfer across – its the same LNP candidate as last time and he was preselected early this time.
Qld Labor website still doesn’t have a new candidate as of tonight. You’d have to think Susan Lynch (currently an electorate officer for Lynham and Marchant Ward candidate earlier in the year) could be in the running too.
Labor candidate has been announced as Jimmy Sullivan.
Labor retain, Jimmy Sullivan to do what his dad did and enter parliament.
Prediction: ALP Retain
ALP retain
ALP keep. Greens will emerge as a threat in time